New Zealand is currently undergoing a general election. As the Sheep Correspondent, it was my job to write about it. New Zealand uses the MMP system, where you have two votes, one for the electorate and one for the list. While not always a perfect indicator, some electorates that are close may help us find out which side the government will swing to.
This seat on the North Shore of Auckland traditionally leans left, but the right has suffered from a problem here. In July, they split the vote, in October, they stood an inactive candidate, and in the most recent by-election, they stood a little known ACT candidate. Now the right has got their shit together somewhat, they’re standing an ACT candidate who a few more people know- FelineNibbler. Up against him is the Minister for Health and Māori Affairs, BHjr132. The polls show BHjr132 with 55%, perhaps owing to his incumbency and popularity, but if the nation swings towards National on election night, Waitematā may well be won by FelineNibbler.
This seat is a predominately National seat, but the Greens have previously held it too after winning a by-election in the seat back in August owing to an inactive National opposition and a Reform candidate who spent most of their time attacking the Greens’ biggest vote splitter. They were re-elected in October, but after incumbent MP KilroyNZ defected to Socialist Aotearoa (and was promptly expelled from parliament for inactivity), the National Party narrowly won a by-election, beating Greens co-leader
Southern has been held by Labour for its entire existence, but is that about to change? Recent polls show National challenger and list MP stranger195 with a narrow 1-point lead over Labour MP Youmaton, who is on 33% to stranger195’s 34%. However, a notable other candidate in the electorate is United Future’s BloodyChrome, on 22%. It isn’t likely he’ll be elected, but who Southern goes to may well decide who is in government at the end of the night. And if United Future wins it? They will be in a very powerful position.